The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress opened in the morning of March 5, 2026, in Beijing, and the "2026 Government Work Report" was released. The economic target for 2026 is mainly focused on stability, and the transformation of the economic structure will be continuously accelerated. However, it is necessary to be vigilant against the short - term disturbances to the market caused by the "expectation gap" of aggregate policies. According to the policy guidance, China's steel industry is expected to continue to develop with reduced quantity and improved quality in 2026. Coupled with the decline in costs, the profit situation of steel mills is expected to improve slightly.
The economic growth target in 2026 has been slightly adjusted downwards, and the increment range of policies is not large.
In 2025, China's economy achieved a growth of 5%, with an average annual growth of 5.4% during the 14th Five - Year Plan period, remaining in the leading echelon among the world's major economies. The economic growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5% - 5%, which is slightly relaxed compared with the target in 2025. Previously, after the Spring Festival, the government work reports of various provinces in 2026 were released, and 21 provinces lowered their GDP growth targets. Therefore, the slight relaxation of the national GDP growth target is in line with the actual situation, and the lower limit of the 4.5% growth target also indicates the bottom - line of "no stalling or slumping".
In terms of fiscal policy, the deficit - to - GDP ratio is planned to be set at around 4%. The government deficit will increase by 230 billion yuan compared with last year. The scale of general public budget expenditure is expected to reach 30 trillion yuan for the first time, an increase of about 1.27 trillion yuan over last year. It is planned to issue 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, 300 billion yuan of special treasury bonds, and arrange 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds. Compared with 2025, the scale of the government deficit and general public budget expenditure has increased significantly, while the overall scale of government bonds remains basically the same, indicating a slight intensification of the proactive fiscal policy.
In terms of monetary policy, the 2026 Report has placed "promoting a reasonable rebound in prices" in a top - priority position, while emphasizing the need to smooth the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. It is expected that China's monetary policy will be generally loose in 2026, and the actual social liquidity will continue to improve with policy support. Considering the macro - economic and financial trends this year, after the central bank introduced a package of structural monetary policy tools at the beginning of the year, it is expected that the central bank will make decisions based on the situation. The annual interest rate cut is likely to reach 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points, with one implementation in the first half and one in the second half of the year. It is also possible to implement targeted interest rate cuts for residential mortgages this year, such as by separately guiding a relatively large - scale downward adjustment of the 5 - year - plus LPR quotation. In addition, this year's quantitative monetary policy will still mainly rely on the Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) and reverse repurchase operations to inject medium - term liquidity into the market, and at the same time, combine the trading of government bonds and the reduction of reserve requirements to inject long - term liquidity into the market.
In terms of consumption - promoting policies, 250 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds are arranged in 2026 to support the trade - in of consumer goods, which is 50 billion yuan less than that in 2025. At the same time, greater efforts will be made to ensure and improve people's livelihoods, such as raising the monthly minimum standard of basic pensions for urban residents, paying more attention to the construction of public utilities, and improving the inclusive services of social elderly care, child care, education, medical care, etc. Meanwhile, a special fund of 100 billion yuan for promoting domestic demand through the coordination of finance and finance is set up. This indicates that there has been a major shift in the consumption - promoting thinking in 2026, from the short - term thinking of "promoting consumption through subsidies" to the long - term cycle of "income growth - consumption promotion". This path will boost consumption from the root and is conducive to the long - term and stable growth of consumption.
In 2026, the expansion intensity of incremental policies is not great. Overall, the steel demand in 2026 will continue to show a slight decline trend. However, with the in - depth promotion of the construction of a unified national market and the requirements of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, the industry self - discipline has been significantly strengthened. It is expected that the domestic crude steel output will continue to decline in 2026, and the supply pressure will be reduced.
In terms of construction industry demand--
Real estate: According to the Report, there are two key points in real - estate policies in 2026. One is to continue to promote the stabilization and recovery of the real - estate market, and the other is to accelerate the construction of a new model for real - estate development and promote the high - quality development of the real - estate industry. On the sales side, it is expected that local governments will continue to relax purchase restrictions, and make greater efforts to acquire commercial housing for use as affordable housing. At the same time, they will actively promote the renovation of urban villages and old - housing areas to release rigid housing demand. On the investment side, the loan amount for "whitelist" projects will continue to increase, and commercial banks will be guided to increase the investment in developers' development loans to improve the capital situation of real - estate enterprises, support the delivery of completed buildings, and resolve the credit risks of real - estate enterprises. It is expected that the real - estate sales market will bottom out in 2026 and is expected to recover slightly. The investment and construction sides will continue to decline, but the decline will narrow significantly. It is estimated that the steel demand for the real - estate industry in 2026 will decline slightly by less than 5%.
Infrastructure: In 2026, 755 billion yuan of central budgetary investment is planned, and 800 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds will be arranged for the construction of "two key aspects". The central government's investment subsidy standards will be raised by category, with the support intensity slightly higher than that in 2025. In terms of investment directions, new infrastructure, urban and county - level infrastructure, as well as security - related infrastructure are mainly mentioned. It is expected that the overall investment intensity will increase slightly compared with 2025. However, the reserve of major projects is significantly lower than that of last year, and the start - up progress may be slightly delayed. The steel demand for infrastructure construction throughout the year is expected to decline slightly by about 2%.
